عنوان مقاله [English]
Prediction of recidivism is a part of criminological studies which has many functions in juristic decision about the convicted. One of the most important decisions deals with parole,which is based on the hypothesis that the convicted will have a due attitude during his conviction and will not commit any criminal offense after early release from prison.
Several studies have been conducted about such clause which might be divided into three generations: First generation methods that were mostly inuitional and clinical, second generation methods, which included clinical methods, improved by actuarial studies and static actuarial methods and third generation methods which considered risk/need and static/dynamic factors. Hence, standard tables like SFS and LSI-R are provided which are applied in order to grant parole.
In Iran, according to second clause of Article 58 of Islamic Penal Code (enacted in 1392) and its precedence in older criminal codes, prediction of non-commission of crime is one of conditions of granting parole which is a legal context to apply prediction studies in parole.Yet, juridical context is not provided. Exact definition of factors needs a longitudinal research with regard to successful studies in other countries and localizing them.