Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Allameh Tabataba'i University
2 Allameh Tabataba'i University
Abstract
Prediction of recidivism is a part of criminological studies which has many functions in juristic decision about the convicted. One of the most important decisions deals with parole,which is based on the hypothesis that the convicted will have a due attitude during his conviction and will not commit any criminal offense after early release from prison.
Several studies have been conducted about such clause which might be divided into three generations: First generation methods that were mostly inuitional and clinical, second generation methods, which included clinical methods, improved by actuarial studies and static actuarial methods and third generation methods which considered risk/need and static/dynamic factors. Hence, standard tables like SFS and LSI-R are provided which are applied in order to grant parole.
In Iran, according to second clause of Article 58 of Islamic Penal Code (enacted in 1392) and its precedence in older criminal codes, prediction of non-commission of crime is one of conditions of granting parole which is a legal context to apply prediction studies in parole.Yet, juridical context is not provided. Exact definition of factors needs a longitudinal research with regard to successful studies in other countries and localizing them.
Keywords
ب: انگلیسی
-
Andrews, D.A. and Bonta, James. (1994). The Psychology of Criminal Conduct , London, UK: Routledge.
-
Champion, Dean J. (1994). Measuring Offener Risk. Westport.USA: Greenwood Press.
-
Farrington, David P. & Tarling, Roger. (1985). Prediction in Criminology. New York. USA: State University of New York Press.
-
Garner, Bryan A.(2010). Black’s Law Dictionary. Eagan, USA: West.
-
Glueck, Sheldon. & Glueck, Elenor. (1959). Predicting Delinquency and Crime. Cambridge, UK:Harvard University Press.
-
Grigorenko, Elena L. (2012). Handbook of Juvenile Forensic Psychology and Psychiatry. New York.USA: Springer.
-
Hakeem, Michael. (1945). “Glueck Method of Parole Prediction Applied to 1861 Cases of Burglars”, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Volume 36, Issue 2.
-
Harcourt, Bernard E. (2007). Against Prediction. Chicago, USA: The University of Chicago Press.
-
Hoge, Robert D. & Vincent, Gina & Guy, Laura. (2013). Prediction and Risk/Needs Assessment (Study Group on The Transitions between Juvenile Delinquency and Adult Crime). USA: National Institute of Justice.
-
Hurwitz, Stephan & Christiansen, Karl O. (1983). Criminology. London. UK: George Allen & Unwin.
-
Lehman, Jeffrey. (2005). West’s Encyclopedia of American Law. (2nd ed.). Detroit. USA: Thomson Gale.
-
Manchak SM, Skeem JL, Douglas KS. (2005): Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in predicting recidivism after long-term incarceration. Law Hum Behav. 32(6).
-
McLaughlin, Eugene & Munice, John. (2001). The Sage Dictionary of Criminology.London, UK: Sage
-
Mclvor, Gill & Raynor, Peter. (1988). Developments in Social Work with Offenders. UK.London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers.
-
Monahan, John. (1995). The Clinical Prediction of Violent Behavior. New Jersey, USA: Jason Aronson INC. copyright 1978.
-
Olin, John M., Henderson, M.Todd, Wolders, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric. (2008). Predicting Crime, Law & Economics Working Paper No.402, USA: University of Chicago.
-
Sang Chang, Yu & Choi, Changyong (2013). Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?, KIDI School of Public and Management.
-
Schessler, Karl F. (1955). “Parole Prediction: Its History and Status”, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology. Volume 45. Issue 4.
-
Taylor, Sandie (2016). Crime and Criminology: A Multidisciplinary Approach. New York, USA: Routledge.
-
Watson, Mark Steven. (2008). The Prediction and Classification of Risk for Future Violence: An Explaratory Study of New Predictive and Typological Aggression Model. (PhD’s Dissertation of Psychology. York University, Toronto. Canada).
Wright, Richard. A. & Miller, J. Mitchell. (2005). Encyclopedia of Criminology. New York, USA: Routledge
-
)