طراحی و امکان‌سنجی الگوی بومی مدیریت ریسک در سیاست‌گذاری مبارزه با قاچاق کالا در ایران: تحلیلی تطبیقی با استانداردهای بین‌المللی گمرکی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری گروه حقوق جزا و جرم‌شناسی از دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه رهبری و سرمایه انسانی دانشکده مدیریت دولتی و علوم انسانی دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده
این پژوهش به بررسی الگوی مدیریت ریسک در سیاست‌گذاری مبارزه با قاچاق کالا در ایران، با رویکردی تطبیقی و در پرتو الزامات اسناد بین‌المللی گمرکی می‌پردازد. پرسش اصلی پژوهش آن است که چرا در نظام گمرکی ایران، میان الزامات بین‌المللی مدیریت ریسک و وضعیت اجرایی موجود فاصله‌ای معنادار وجود دارد و چگونه می‌توان با طراحی الگویی بومی، این شکاف را کاهش داد؟ روش تحقیق توصیفی–تحلیلی با رویکرد تطبیقی و مبتنی بر تحلیل اسنادی است. داده‌ها از قوانین و اسناد داخلی و همچنین اسناد الزام‌آور و غیرالزام‌آور سازمان جهانی گمرک گردآوری شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد اگرچه نظام گمرکی ایران در سطح سیاست‌گذاری و اسناد برنامه‌ای دارای هم‌پوشانی نسبی با استانداردهای جهانی است، اما در مرحله اجرا، از حیث زیرساخت‌های داده‌ای، هماهنگی بین‌نهادی و توان تحلیلی منابع انسانی، در سطح «بنیادی–میانی» قرار دارد. مهم‌ترین خلأها شامل فقدان مرکز ملی مدیریت ریسک، ضعف تبادل داده ساختاریافته و نبود سازوکارهای تحلیلی یکپارچه است. بر این اساس، پژوهش الگویی بومی و شش‌فازی مشتمل بر شناخت و آماده‌سازی، طراحی مفهومی، معماری سیستم و داده، اجرای آزمایشی، پیاده‌سازی ملی و پایش و بهبود مستمر ارائه می‌کند که با چرخه مدیریت ریسک سازمان جهانی گمرک هم‌راستا بوده و قابلیت اجرا در چارچوب حقوقی ایران را دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Design and Feasibility Study of a Localized Risk Management Model for Policymaking to Combat Goods Smuggling in Iran: A Comparative Analysis with International Customs Standards

نویسندگان English

Rahman Sabouhi 1
Hamidreza Yazdani 2
1 PhD, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Qom University, Qom, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Leadership and Human Capital, Faculty of Public Administration and Humanities, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction
Goods smuggling is among the most persistent and structurally complex forms of economic crime, with far-reaching negative effects on national economic security, public revenues, market stability, and public trust in regulatory institutions. In recent decades, the globalization of trade, the growth of cross-border supply chains, and the rapid digitalization of logistics have fundamentally reshaped smuggling. Organized smuggling networks now increasingly employ sophisticated techniques, engage in regulatory arbitrage, and exploit institutional weaknesses—developments that have rendered many traditional customs control mechanisms less effective.
Historically, customs administrations relied on manual physical inspections, random checks, and reactive enforcement strategies. However, international experience and criminological literature demonstrate that these approaches are inefficient, costly, and incompatible with the growing volume of global trade. Consequently, contemporary customs systems have transitioned toward customs risk management (CRM)—a data-driven, intelligence-led framework that enables the selective targeting of high-risk consignments while facilitating low-risk trade.
At the international level, the World Customs Organization (WCO) has institutionalized risk-based customs control through key instruments such as the Revised Kyoto Convention, the SAFE Framework of Standards, and guidelines on Authorized Economic Operators (AEO). These instruments emphasize systematic risk identification, risk analysis, inter-institutional data exchange, and continuous monitoring. Numerous empirical studies confirm that effective CRM enhances enforcement efficiency, reduces transaction costs, and strengthens voluntary compliance.
Despite formal commitments to international customs standards, Iran’s customs system continues to exhibit a significant gap between normative adoption of risk-management principles and their practical implementation. Iran’s geopolitical position, extensive land and maritime borders, and role as a regional transit corridor heighten its exposure to smuggling risks. Official statistics report tens of thousands of detected smuggling cases each year; however, seizure-based indicators suggest that only a small share of total smuggling flows is intercepted. This disparity points to structural deficiencies in risk identification, data integration, and institutional coordination.
Existing Iranian scholarship has examined smuggling mainly through legal, criminological, and enforcement-oriented lenses. However, systematic analysis of CRM as a policy instrument—particularly through comparative assessment against international customs standards—remains limited. To address the gap, the present study aimed to examine the underlying causes of the implementation deficit and propose a localized, operational risk management model that would be compatible with Iran’s legal and institutional framework.
The primary objective was to analyze the causes of the discrepancy between international CRM standards and their practical implementation within Iran’s customs system. Specifically, the present study sought to examine the conceptual and legal status of CRM within Iran’s anti-smuggling policy framework. It also intended to evaluate the extent to which domestic laws, regulations, and institutional arrangements align with the requirements of international customs instruments, particularly those developed by the WCO. Moreover, an attempt was made to identify the key legal, organizational, and technological deficiencies that impede effective risk-based customs control. Finally, the study developed a six-phase, localized CRM model that is both operationally feasible and legally compatible with Iran’s governance structure.
Materials and Methods
The current research employed a descriptive–analytical methodology combined with a comparative approach. The data was collected through documentary analysis of domestic laws and regulations, policy documents, executive bylaws, and official reports relating to customs control and anti-smuggling measures in Iran. In addition, both binding and non-binding international instruments issued by the WCO were systematically reviewed. The comparative dimension focused on evaluating Iran’s CRM framework against international standards derived from the Revised Kyoto Convention, the SAFE Framework of Standards, and the WCO risk management guidelines. Rather than engaging in a purely quantitative assessment, the study emphasized qualitative institutional analysis, identifying patterns of convergence and divergence across legal, technological, and organizational dimensions.
Results and Discussion
Iran’s customs system exhibits partial and largely formal alignment with international CRM standards at the policy and legislative levels. Several domestic regulations explicitly refer to risk-based control, electronic data exchange, and trader profiling. In practice, however, this alignment remains superficial and insufficiently institutionalized. At the operational level, Iran’s CRM capacity can be characterized as being at a basic-to-intermediate stage of maturity. The most salient deficiencies include: (1) the absence of a national integrated CRM center to provide centralized risk analysis and decision-making; (2) weak and fragmented inter-institutional data exchange mechanisms (particularly among customs, law-enforcement authorities, and regulatory bodies); (3) limited analytical capacity and inadequate human resource specialization in risk modelling, data mining, and advanced targeting techniques; and (4) the lack of an integrated technological architecture capable of supporting real-time risk assessment and automated selectivity.
Building on these findings, the study proposed a six-phase, localized CRM model comprising institutional recognition and preparatory capacity-building, conceptual design and legal alignment, development of system and data architecture, pilot implementation, nationwide implementation, and continuous monitoring and improvement. The model is structurally consistent with the WCO risk management cycle while remaining adaptable to Iran’s legal framework and administrative realities.
Conclusion
The study concludes that effective implementation of CRM in Iran requires moving beyond the formal and legal adoption toward the deep institutionalization of risk-based governance. Establishing a centralized national risk management center, strengthening legal frameworks for real-time data exchange, investing in human capital development, and ensuring technological integration are essential prerequisites for success. If fully implemented, the proposed model could significantly enhance the efficiency of smuggling detection, reduce unnecessary inspections, lower transaction costs for low-risk traders, and strengthen trust between customs authorities and economic operators. Ultimately, aligning Iran’s customs system with advanced risk management practices can contribute to sustainable trade facilitation while reinforcing national economic security.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Customs risk management
Goods smuggling
Revised Kyoto Convention
SAFE Framework of Standards
International customs instruments
  1. فارسی

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    صفاری، علی (1390)، مبانی نظری پیشگیری از جرم، چاپ دوم، تهران: انتشارات تحقیقات حقوقی

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    د:  قوانین

    ـ قوانین و مقررات داخلی ایران

    1. قانون مبارزه با قاچاق کالا و ارز، مصوب ۱۳۹۲، با اصلاحات بعدی. تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    2. قانون امور گمرکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، مصوب ۱۳۹۰، با اصلاحات بعدی. تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    3. آیین‌نامه اجرایی قانون امور گمرکی (مصوب هیئت وزیران). تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    4. قانون اجازه الحاق دولت جمهوری اسلامی ایران به کنوانسیون بین‌المللی سیستم هماهنگ توصیف و کدگذاری کالا (مصوب ۱۶/1/۱۳۷۳ مجلس شورای اسلامی)، تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    5. قانون موافقتنامه همکاری و کمک متقابل اداری در موضوعات گمرکی بین گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران و اداره کل گمرک جمهوری سوسیالیستی ویتنام (مصوب 1398)، تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.

    - دستورالعمل‌ها و آیین نامه ها

    • آیین‌نامه اجرایی قانون امور گمرکی، مصوب ۱۳۹۱ هیئت وزیران. تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    • آیین‌نامه اجرایی سامانه پنجره واحد تجاری، مصوب 1395 هیئت وزیران. تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    • آیین‌نامه اجرایی مواد ۵ و ۶ قانون مبارزه با قاچاق کالا و ارز، مصوب ۱۳۹۵. تهران: روزنامه رسمی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    • دستورالعمل اجرایی سیستم مدیریت ریسک گمرکی (بخشنامه شماره ۷۳۰۷۳/۲۹۹، مورخ ۱۳۹۳/۰۴/۰۱). گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    • دستورالعمل رتبه‌بندی فعالان اقتصادی مجاز (AEO/APA). سازمان جهانی گمرک و گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    • بخشنامه‌ها و رویه‌های اجرایی مربوط به تبادل داده الکترونیک گمرکی.
    • دستورالعمل ایجاد و راهبری مرکز ملی ریسک یکپارچه (بر اساس اسناد WCO).

     

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