نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• رحمان صبوحی ¹
• حمیدرضا یزدانی ²

¹ دکتری گروه حقوق جزا و جرم‌شناسی از دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

² دانشیار گروه رهبری و سرمایه انسانی دانشکده مدیریت دولتی و علوم انسانی دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این پژوهش به بررسی الگوی مدیریت ریسک در سیاست‌گذاری مبارزه با قاچاق کالا در ایران، با رویکردی تطبیقی و در پرتو الزامات اسناد بین‌المللی گمرکی می‌پردازد. پرسش اصلی پژوهش آن است که چرا در نظام گمرکی ایران، میان الزامات بین‌المللی مدیریت ریسک و وضعیت اجرایی موجود فاصله‌ای معنادار وجود دارد و چگونه می‌توان با طراحی الگویی بومی، این شکاف را کاهش داد؟ روش تحقیق توصیفی–تحلیلی با رویکرد تطبیقی و مبتنی بر تحلیل اسنادی است. داده‌ها از قوانین و اسناد داخلی و همچنین اسناد الزام‌آور و غیرالزام‌آور سازمان جهانی گمرک گردآوری شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد اگرچه نظام گمرکی ایران در سطح سیاست‌گذاری و اسناد برنامه‌ای دارای هم‌پوشانی نسبی با استانداردهای جهانی است، اما در مرحله اجرا، از حیث زیرساخت‌های داده‌ای، هماهنگی بین‌نهادی و توان تحلیلی منابع انسانی، در سطح «بنیادی–میانی» قرار دارد. مهم‌ترین خلأها شامل فقدان مرکز ملی مدیریت ریسک، ضعف تبادل داده ساختاریافته و نبود سازوکارهای تحلیلی یکپارچه است. بر این اساس، پژوهش الگویی بومی و شش‌فازی مشتمل بر شناخت و آماده‌سازی، طراحی مفهومی، معماری سیستم و داده، اجرای آزمایشی، پیاده‌سازی ملی و پایش و بهبود مستمر ارائه می‌کند که با چرخه مدیریت ریسک سازمان جهانی گمرک هم‌راستا بوده و قابلیت اجرا در چارچوب حقوقی ایران را دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مدیریت ریسک گمرکی
• قاچاق کالا
• کنوانسیون تجدیدنظر شده کیوتو
• الزامات و چارچوب های امن
• الزامات و اسناد بین‌المللی

موضوعات

• حقوق کیفری و جرم شناسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing and Feasibility Study of a Local Risk Management Model in Policy-Making to Combat Smuggling of Goods in Iran: A Comparative Analysis with International Customs Standards

نویسندگان [English]

• Rahman Sabouhi ¹
• Hamidreza Yazdani ²

¹ PhD, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Qom University, Qom, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Leadership and Human Capital, Faculty of Public Administration and Humanities, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Problem Statement and Literature Review:
Goods smuggling represents one of the most persistent and structurally complex forms of economic crime, generating wide-ranging adverse effects on national economic security, fiscal revenues, market stability, and public trust in regulatory institutions. In recent decades, the globalization of trade, expansion of cross-border supply chains, and rapid digitalization of logistics have fundamentally transformed the nature of smuggling activities. Organized smuggling networks increasingly rely on sophisticated methods, regulatory arbitrage, and exploitation of institutional weaknesses, rendering traditional customs control mechanisms largely ineffective.
Historically, customs administrations relied on extensive physical inspections, random checks, and reactive enforcement strategies. However, international experiences and criminological literature emphasize that such approaches are inefficient, costly, and incompatible with the growing volume of international trade. Consequently, contemporary customs systems have gradually shifted toward customs risk management, a data-driven and intelligence-led approach that enables the selective targeting of high-risk consignments while facilitating low-risk trade.
At the international level, the World Customs Organization (WCO) has institutionalized risk-based customs control through key instruments such as the Revised Kyoto Convention, the SAFE Framework of Standards, and guidelines on Authorized Economic Operators (AEO). These instruments emphasize systematic risk identification, risk analysis, inter-agency data exchange, and continuous monitoring. Numerous empirical studies confirm that effective customs risk management enhances enforcement efficiency, reduces transaction costs, and strengthens voluntary compliance.
Despite formal commitments to international customs standards, the Iranian customs system continues to experience a significant gap between normative adoption and practical implementation of risk management principles. Iran’s geopolitical position, extensive land and maritime borders, and role as a regional transit corridor have intensified its exposure to smuggling risks. Official statistics indicate tens of thousands of detected smuggling cases annually; nevertheless, seizure-based indicators suggest that only a limited proportion of actual smuggling flows are intercepted. This discrepancy underscores structural deficiencies in risk identification, data integration, and institutional coordination.
Existing domestic literature in Iran has addressed smuggling primarily from legal, criminological, or enforcement-oriented perspectives. However, systematic analysis of customs risk management as a policy tool, particularly through a comparative assessment with international customs standards, remains limited. This research seeks to address this gap by examining the underlying causes of the implementation deficit and proposing a localized and operational risk management model compatible with Iran’s legal and institutional framework.
Research Objectives
The primary objective of this study is to analyze the causes of the discrepancy between international customs risk management standards and their practical implementation within Iran’s customs system, and to propose a feasible, indigenous model for bridging this gap. Specifically, the research pursues the following objectives:
 
    To examine the conceptual and legal position of customs risk management within Iran’s anti-smuggling policy framework.
    To assess the degree of alignment between Iran’s domestic laws, regulations, and institutional structures and the requirements of international customs instruments, particularly those developed by the WCO.
    To identify the key legal, organizational, and technological gaps hindering the effective implementation of risk-based customs control.
    To design a six-phase indigenous customs risk management model that is operationally feasible and legally compatible with Iran’s governance structure.
Research Methodology
This research adopts a descriptive–analytical methodology combined with a comparative approach. Data were collected through documentary analysis of domestic laws and regulations, policy documents, executive bylaws, and official reports related to customs control and anti-smuggling measures in Iran. Additionally, binding and non-binding international instruments issued by the World Customs Organization were systematically reviewed.
The comparative dimension focuses on evaluating Iran’s customs risk management framework against international benchmarks derived from the Revised Kyoto Convention, the SAFE Framework of Standards, and WCO risk management guidelines. Rather than engaging in a purely quantitative assessment, the study emphasizes qualitative institutional analysis, identifying patterns of convergence and divergence across legal, technological, and organizational dimensions.
Findings
The findings indicate that Iran’s customs system demonstrates a partial and formal alignment with international customs risk management standards at the policy and legislative levels. Several domestic regulations explicitly reference risk-based control, electronic data exchange, and trader profiling. However, this alignment remains largely superficial and insufficiently institutionalized. At the operational level, Iran’s customs risk management capacity can be characterized as lying within a “basic-to-intermediate” stage of maturity. The most significant deficiencies identified include:
    The absence of a National Integrated Customs Risk Management Center responsible for centralized risk analysis and decision-making.
    Weak and fragmented inter-agency data exchange mechanisms, particularly between customs, law enforcement, and regulatory bodies.
    Limited analytical capacity and insufficient specialization of human resources in risk modeling, data mining, and advanced targeting techniques.
    Lack of integrated technological architecture capable of supporting real-time risk assessment and automated selectivity.
Based on these findings, the study proposes an indigenous six-phase customs risk management model, consisting of:
    Institutional recognition and preparatory capacity-building
    Conceptual design and legal alignment
    System and data architecture development
    Pilot implementation
    Nationwide deployment
    Continuous monitoring and improvement.
This model is structurally aligned with the WCO risk management cycle while remaining adaptable to Iran’s legal system and administrative realities.
Conclusion
The study concludes that effective implementation of customs risk management in Iran requires moving beyond formal legal adoption toward deep institutionalization of risk-based governance. Establishing a centralized national risk management center, strengthening legal frameworks for real-time data exchange, investing in human capital development, and ensuring technological integration are essential prerequisites for success. If fully implemented, the proposed indigenous model can significantly enhance the efficiency of smuggling detection, reduce unnecessary inspections, lower transaction costs for low-risk traders, and strengthen trust between customs authorities and economic operators. Ultimately, aligning Iran’s customs system with advanced risk management practices can contribute to sustainable trade facilitation while reinforcing national economic security.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Customs Risk Management
• Goods Smuggling
• Revised Kyoto Convention
• SAFE Framework of Standards
• International Customs Instruments